Puzzle 4B - Different kinds of Bets
R. H. Zander
February 7, 2002

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Puzzle 4B

The second kind of statistics asks "what is the chance that the very next flip will be the side I am guessing?" This is the chance of ONE TRY. What side do you think the coin will show if you click on it (flip it) below? Just once?

click image to flip coin (if it doesn't change it comes up the same)

It's really hard to do the second kind of statistics unless you have a good idea of PRIORS. These are prior assumptions that guide you in your guesswork. A coin SHOULD come up about 50/50 heads and tails if it is not loaded. The coin above is such a coin.

Go to Puzzle 4C