Puzzle 4A - Different kinds of Bets
R. H. Zander
February 7, 2002

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Puzzle 4A

There are two kinds of statistics, (1) frequentist statistics and (2) Bayesian statistics.

The first kind asks "if things don't change, what is the chance that things will continue as they are?" It examines what happens OVER THE LONG RUN. Example: click on the coin below 10 times and write down the number of times it turns up heads and the number of times it turns up tails (if it doesn't change it comes up the same). Get the proportion of heads to tails. If it is about 50/50, then the coin is not loaded. If it is not 50/50, then a frequentist would make a bet that continued flipping of the coin would continue to be at about the same proportion (it being loaded), and would generally win the bet.


click image to flip coin (if it doesn't change it comes up the same)

Go to Puzzle 4B